The Empire’s plans suffer another major setback in the Middle-East: Hamas seems to have taken control of the Gaza strip and the Abbas regime is preparing to major repression against the Palestinian population.
What do you guys make of it?
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“Now, matters are worse.” -Yoda
for the Neocons – yes, for sure. But for the Middle-East? I don’t think so.
…Dudes, I haven’t had a drink in 4 days, but this damn Computer thought it would get cute with me for a couple more in the interim…Anyway…Outside of the standard, mind numbing rhetoric, Congress as usual has now demonstrated its underlying intent to do nothing—And with that [sic] being the case. I think it is then incumbent upon a select number of well placed, irresponsible fool[s] in The Executive Branch and The Dept. of State to come to terms with this current reality, and conclude that in continuing to prosecute this ever worsening disaster, will events soon spin out of control…Which is for them to say: “My fellow Americans, there’s no turning back”…Let’s hope to hell that’s not what they’ve wanted all along…But when I hear that ugly little sonofabitch of an arrogant gnome, Joseph Lieberman, taking it upon himself to demand that the “US attack Iran” it makes me think that’s just what they’re going to do…Somebody ask him if he speaks as an elected Senator for the People of Connecticut, and in a broader sense The Republic?…Or JINSA, AIPAC, The Likud Party and The Israel Lobby?…Mr. Vinyerd Shaker, you have the credentials and are probably most qualified…Tell ‘em you’re one of Zbig’s long lost nephews.
VS: Isn’t it now more likely that Israel will invade Gaza?
Scott – knowing how utterly stupid Olmert and Peretz have proved to be, everthing is possible. But from a military point of view invading Gaza achieves nothing: you get some Israelis killed, you get lots of Palestinians killed, and then you withdraw adn leave Hamas even stronger than it was before. Besides, after the whopping the IDF took in South Lebanon I presume that the troops are not too eager to go into another round of urban warfare. Grant you – Hamas is not Hezbollah, not even remotely close in fact. But still, fighting in the kind of urban ghetto terrain like Gaza is just not an appealing option. Keep in mind that there are no military valuable objectives. Sure, Hamas took over the main Fatah compounds and I bet you that the Israeli Air Force will take them out shortly, but besides that there is nothing to seize, nothing to control, nothing to destroy other than the Palestinians themselves. Fighting against elusive combattants amidst 1.4 million people crammed into 130 square miles just makes no sense at all. Also – the Israelis need to realize that there is a real risk of a “contagion effect” to the West Bank. Not militarily – the Israelis have a tight grip on all their (illegal) internal borders – but politically. There are plenty of Hamas sympathizers inside the West Bank which are going to feel encouraged by the events in Gaza. The West Bank is not Gaza, however. Fatah has a much better control over there, the population is comparatively better off and I do not see a repeat of the Gaza scenario for a while. But in 6 months? In a year? Who knows?! This is the Middle-East and things explode really fast there. If I were in the IDF General Staff I would reccommend worrying about Lebanon, Syria, the upcoming war with Iran and not about trying to hold on unto Gaza. But with Olmert in power – who knows what these crazies might decide…
Scott – check out these for Israeli predictions:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/871412.html
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3413159,00.html
the really amazing thing – and I wish you would ask one of your guests about this – is how did Fatah, Israel or the US not get prior warning of this? Or, if the latter two did, why did they not warn Hamas. Or was the infiltration of the US-trained Fatah fighters from Egpypt into Gaza their idea of how to prevent a Hamas takeover? Because if it was – they are mighty stupid to expect Fatah thugs to stand against Hamas guerrillas. The only chance to prevent what took place would have to insert several platoon strength mobile combat groups with forward air controllers into Gaza at the main Fatah compounds and ambush Hamas. That did not happen, and this tells me that the famous US or Israeli intelligence fucked this one up – as usual, I would add.
Another option is, of course, invasion by proxy: an international peacekeeping force. There are already calls for such an option. Regardless, what matters is that such a force would have to be exactly in the same position as other such forces have been in other conflict areas: either as a “guest” of Hamas, in which case it would do exactly nothing to challenge Hamas, or as an occupying force, in which case it would face the same challenges as the IDF have in the past. Simply put – a peacekeeping force in Gaza solves *nothing*. Frankly, this is yet another delusional concept dreamed up by clueless politicians.
…Bear in mind Gentlemen, Hamas was originally a creation of Israel…The ostensible reason being, that Muslim Clerical Students would be much easier to control than General Arafat and the PLO…The Realpolitick? nothing less than the classic strategy of divide and conquer. Fast forward 30 years, Now, with Hamas’ evident succession as the de facto Political entity, Likud and/or Kadima—Which amounts to Likud in drag, have an excellent, if contrived rationale to lay Gaza, the West Bank as well as both Palestinian factions waste. And I predict that’s exactly what they’re going to do…And as VS points out, with fixed wing and rotor air assets…They’re not going to risk the loss of another 60 more Tanks and a couple Battailions of Infantry in the resultant savagery of urban fighting. Add to this the nullification of NOG, UN aide in terms of food and medicine, clean water, power etc. plainly due to the Security Situation; and the consequences will come to resemble the German siege of Leningrad and razing of the Warsaw Ghetto in WW 2. Thus you have a debacle that is, once more, wholly irreconcilable. The perpetration of which will only prove more vicious, lethal and inhuman with time….Then, submitted for your consideration: There’s the second advent of Benjamin Netanyahu; and a compromised Israeli Warrior Caste with something to prove…Events in the Middle East are degenerating into the promise of a long term bloodbath…I hope Mr. Lieberman is happy.
…No International Peacekeeping Force—That would be useless in the first place will be forthcoming—The US/Israeli block in the UN would never permit it…Past that what would they do? Declare Economic Sanctions? I seriously doubt it. I get the idea that this present impasse in the Middle East will give way to the first use of Nuclear Weapons since Nagasaki…It only remains a question of when.